Reblog – Finance Fridays (Sayahh’s Revenue Projections – Part 2)

Here is the next iteration of Brad Feld’s Finance Friday’s.  This post covers cash forecasts and financial projections.  As Brad points out, most startups start with a cash forecast to track expenses because it takes a bit of time to figure out how to best project revenues (the top line of the financial projections).

As one of my mentors has said over and over “it’s all about burn rate and fume date!!!”   Carefully tracking expenses gives you both the burn rate (how much net cash you spend each month) and fume date (the date you will likely run out of cash).  Even for a recovering lawyer (me), it is common sense.

Have a great weekend.

Advion Sells its CRO Business

Advion is a CVF portfolio company.  It has a stable of very well-known investors (Aisling, Skyline, Polaris), and is currently the largest company (in terms of revenue and employees) in our portfolio.  Advion has 2 operating business, namely (i) a Contract Research Organization (CRO), which is a premier bioanalytical service laboratory specializing in liquid chromatography – tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) services, and (ii) a products business, which is the scientific leader in microfluidics systems for chemistry and biochemistry applications.

I am very pleased to announced that last night Advion signed a definitive agreement to sell its CRO business.  This is a great outcome for the company and the Ithaca community.  You can read the company’s press release here.

We continue to have a meaningful ownership stake in the products business!  Go Advion!!

Breaking Up Prior to Incorporation

What happens when a purported “full time” co-founder decides to scale back prior to actual incorporation of the legal entity.  Let’s call this person Founder L (L for “leaving”).  And let’s call the other founder Founder C (C for “continuing”).  Let’s assume only 2 founders.

The situation, predictably, can be anything but harmonious. Originally, let’s say that Founder C and Founder L verbally agree (prior to formal entity formation) that the initial equity split between them would be 51% to Founder C and 49% to Founder L.  They did not discuss vesting originally (a mistake).  To complicate matters, each of Founder C and Founder L put in $5,000 to get the yet-to-be incorporated company off the ground (funds to order some inventory and file a provisional patent application, for example).  At the time of this cash infusion Founder C and Founder L were getting along fine and Founder L was playing a meaningful role.

About 4 months or so after the initial cash infusion by each of them and the verbal agreement on how equity would ultimately be split, things start to head in the wrong direction.  Founder L is not pulling his weight; he is happy to talk strategy and suggest tasks for others, but is not willing to get his hands too dirty.  Founder L is the one worrying about the day to day, etc.   Founder L decides to pursue a full time job.  Founder C, feeling that Founder L was not worth too much to the business anyway, hires some other people.  Founder C, being the agreed to majority owner of the to-be-formed entity, basically tells Founder L that there is no room for a part time founder and offers Founder L a small equity stake (5%) for past contributions and also offers to repay, when the company can afford it, his $5,000.  This starts an interesting process.

Founder L’s position is that his $5,000 cash contribution at inception was an investment in the to-be-formed entity and that he is therefore entitled to a larger piece of the company (he wants 25%).  No doubt that Founder L’s cash infusion was important to the non-formed company.  But Founder C justifiably feels that 25% is a huge piece for $5,000.  I would tend to agree with her.  Regardless, unless agreement is reached, the company is now crippled and maybe dead.  It is certainly not fundable with an outstanding dispute as to share ownership (I bet the early investors in Facebook had no idea about the ownership disputes there when they first invested).

This situation raises some interesting issues – very common issues unfortunately that lead to sub-optimal outcomes all the time and ruin friendships.  Let’s look at some of the issues and solutions:

1.  What is a good way to plan ahead for founder breakups before entity set up?  The best thing to do is have a “pre-formation” written agreement that spells out who will own what, how shares will vest over time and what actually happens if someone decides to leave prior to entity formation or if the founders simply decide that they don’t want to work with each other any longer and one of them gets fired.  This is particularly relevant when you have 3 or more founders and no one owns a majority as 2 can “gang” up on the other one and fire him.

2.  Who is in charge prior to entity formation?  The pre-formation agreement should also spell out who is in charge (acting CEO).  This will typically follow the equity split so in this hypo Founder C would be in charge.  If you have no majority owner, the agreement as to who is in charge is heightened in importance.  Yes, everyone is pulling the same oar, but defining roles is key.

3.  How much does a cash infusion actually purchase of the to-be-formed entity?  My default answer is going to apply here as well – it depends on what the pre-formation agreement says.  And it definitely should address this critical issue.  In the hypo above, $5,000 for 25% seems really high to me as Founder L will be a serious free rider if the company is successful.  Sure, he will be diluted when the company raises funds in the future, but could still end up with a meaningful stake at exit.  And, agreeing that a cash infusion buys nothing outright is perfectly fine.

4.  What if Founder L and Founder C don’t agree on the breakup terms?  Chances are that the company is toast.  Founder L will likely realize this and that would give him some bargaining power.  Founder C could always form the entity and cut out Founder L completely as an equity holder, but the risk of Founder L suing is real and this risk will hamper the company’s ability to raise funds if it is disclosed.  What we can hope for is that Founder L and Founder C are rational, come to terms and compromise.  I doubt both will be delighted with the outcome, but the alternative is likely worse.

If this brings up additional questions for you, let me know and I will try to answer.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

 

Reblog – Finance Fridays (Sayahh’s Revenue Projections)

Here is the next post in Brad Feld’s Finance Fridays.  This time he talks about Sayahh’s revenue projections.  Post is here.

Some interesting points:

1.  It is critical to breakdown your revenue components into “digestible” segments.  Brad always invests in software companies and his examples derive from that.  But what about a medical device company or MEMS company.  For example, if you are working on a medical device company, the revenue breakdown might show revenue coming from different channels (like hospitals, clinics, direct to patient, licensing).  It is key to present in a way that truly tells your company’s story.

2.  Speaking of stories, treat the revenue section of your projections as the first chapter in your company’s story book.  “We will make revenue by doing X, Y and Z.”  The projection model is the most critical and most underrated story telling device.  If your model does not jibe with your other story elements (like a PowerPoint deck and oral presentation) you have failed to tell your story well.  And you will be discredited for it…..and your fundraising will be more of a challenge.

3.  Projections are never right – I am sure most of you know and expect that.  I love the way Brad states this:  “A skeptic might assert that it is a waste of time for a pre-customer startup to forecast revenues since they are guaranteed to be incorrect. When I look at a startup’s revenue projections, I don’t pay much attention to the actual numbers for just that reason. However, I do look at the structure of the model to see if they really understand their business and are actively tracking their key business drivers.”   This goes back to having your projection model tell a story – sorry for the record skipping here (making the same point multiple times).  If done correctly, it will show a solid (maybe not ultra deep) understanding of your strategy to ultimately make some jing and maybe even a positive bottom line eventually.

4.  I do not consider myself a numbers guy.  My corporate lawyer training did not focus on spreadsheets and my brain is not wired that way.  BUT, I can easily tell when a model is good, bad or in the middle.  If I can tell, then most experienced VCs can tell way better and faster.  Get help with your financial models to make them sing your company’s “anthem”!

Enjoy the weekend.  We are having a week of Indian Summer here in Ithaca – absolutely beautiful.